Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Market Update from Mike Kuta " The Squawk Trader "




June 25, 2013
Global Central Bankers Say Tighter Monetary Policy Long Way Off.
Global central bankers led by Federal Reserve officials said they are still a long way off from tightening monetary policy, seeking to calm investors unnerved by the Fed’s push toward curtailing bond-buying. With stocks sliding after the Fed’s June 19 decision to outline a timetable for tapering its latest quantitative-easing program, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King and European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure today echoed Fed counterparts in saying policy will stay loose to safeguard economic expansion. “Clearly the level of interest rates and the scale of asset purchases will have to be unwound and we must return to more normal conditions at some point,” King told lawmakers in London. “That point is not today.” Also speaking in London, Coeure said euro-region economic growth will probably remain “weak” this year and there should be “no doubts that our ‘exit’ is distant.” In a speech in Berlin, ECB President Mario Draghi said the euro-area economy’s condition “still warrants an accommodative stance.” The Europeans’ comments come a day after two regional Fed presidents emphasized that U.S. policy remains accommodative. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week said the Fed may start slowing the pace of its bond-buying program later this year and end it entirely around mid-2014 if the economy gets on a path of sustainable growth. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has fallen 4.8 percent since then. “The bottom line is that they’re driving home the point that there’s no exit yet,” said Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York. “Many economies can ill-afford higher interest rates.”
China Crunch:
China’s central bank said today it will keep money-market rates at a “reasonable” level amid a cash squeeze which last week sent the nation’s overnight repurchase rate to a record. The People’s Bank of China has provided liquidity to some financial institutions to stabilize money market rates and will use short-term liquidity operations and standing lending facility tools to ensure steady markets, according to a statement today. It also called on commercial banks to improve their liquidity management. U.S. stock futures rose, signaling the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will rebound from a nine-week low today, after the PBOC’s announcement. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index increased 1.4 percent as of 1:20 p.m. in London.
King Defense:
Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and a critic of the Fed’s easing policies, said yesterday that officials are talking about a “dialing back,” not an exit. Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, who has called for easier policy, said the Fed must emphasize in its statement that policy will remain accommodative “for a considerable time” after the end of quantitative easing. Their comments highlight the challenges the Fed confronts while seeking to lay out a strategy for curtailing the asset purchases that have pushed its balance sheet to a record $3.47 trillion. Neither Fisher nor Kocherlakota votes on policy this year, though they will vote in 2014. Bernanke last week emphasized that decisions to alter the pace of asset purchases depend on the economy’s performance, and that the Fed has “no deterministic or fixed plan” to end them. Fisher yesterday backed Bernanke’s message, saying he favors tapering the purchases if the economy makes the kind of progress officials forecast. King also defended the Fed chief, saying markets overreacted to his comments. “Even in the U.S., what you’ve seen there is that they’re still providing more stimulus,” King said. “The rate at which they’re providing more stimulus may be about to suddenly taper, but they’re still providing more stimulus.”


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The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

DTN Morning Comments on Cotton

Cotton Slips Beyond Maturing July

Stock index futures traded lower Monday and the dollar closed higher Friday. July delivery notices totaled 116. Trend-following funds boosted net longs by a bulging 38% during the reporting week, encompassing the expiration of July options.
By Duane Howell DTN Cotton Correspondent
Cotton futures traded with slight losses beyond maturing July Monday after posting the sharpest weekly decline in a long time.
Most-active December hovered off 19 points to 84.45 cents at 8:01 a.m. CDT, near the low of its 115-point range from 84.15 to 85.30 cents on a contract volume of 2,274 lots. July traded up 44 points to 85.59 cents on a turnover of 126 lots.
July delivery notices on the first notice day totaled 116, including 98 issued by Term Commodities, trading arm of Allenberg Cotton Co. Newedge USA stopped all notices for a customer.
U.S. stock index futures are lower and the dollar index futures are higher, extending the trend from last week amid concerns that the Federal Reserve may begin to scale back its stimulus program and about a possible cash crunch in China. 

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The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

DTN Morning Comments on Grains

Grains Mixed In Quiet Overnight Trade

Corn futures are lower, soybeans higher and wheat lower at 6 a.m. CDT.
By Todd Hultman DTN Analyst

6:00 a.m. CME Globex: December corn 2 cents lower, November soybeans 1 1/4 cents higher, and July wheat 1 1/2 cents lower.
CME Globex Recap: Grains are mixed early Wednesday after quiet trading overnight. The latest seven-day forecast expects 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 inches of rain over Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin starting Thursday, not good news for producers waiting to plant soybeans. Crude oil and gold are steady to higher with EIA crude oil inventory data at 9:30 a.m. CDT and Wednesday’s Federal Reserve statement at 1 p.m.

Read More:
http://sweetfutures.com/2013/dtn-morning-comments-on-grains-20/ 


The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
 

DTN Morning Comments on Livestock

Hog Contracts Staged for Opening Strength


The lean hog board should open moderately higher, supported by surging carcass value and the large premium of the cash index. Cattle futures are likely to start out mixed as traders slowly position ahead of late-week cash and on-feed news.
By John Harrington DTN Livestock Analyst
Cattle: Steady-$2 LR Futures: mixed Live Equiv $136.64 – 0.24* Hogs: Steady-0.50 HR Futures: 10-30 HR Lean Equiv $114.93 +$2.61** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue

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http://sweetfutures.com/2013/5014/

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Market Update from Mike Kuta " The Squawk Trader "

June 19, 2013
Mortgage Cop: Four Top Banks Fail Consumers.
More than a year after the nation’s five-largest mortgage servicers signed a $26 billion legal settlement with 49 state attorneys general and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development over blatantly improper foreclosure procedures, those banks still need to do better. That is the conclusion of the National Mortgage Settlement’s monitor, former North Carolina banking commissioner Joseph A. Smith, in a report released Wednesday. “It’s better than it was. It’s not as good as it needs to be, and we’re going to keep at it,” Smith said in an interview. In addition to $26 billion in relief to customers wronged by so-called, “robo-signing” foreclosure document fraud and other abuses, the five lenders, Bank of America (BAC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM),CitiMortgage (NYSE:C), ResCap (formerly Ally/GMAC) and Wells Fargo (WFC), are required to comply with 304 servicing standards. The banks are required to use their own employees, albeit those separate from their servicing operations, to work with members of the monitor’s staff to assess their performance using 29 separate metrics; these range from foreclosure sale errors to modification denials to workforce management to servicer decision timeliness. Four of the five banks reported failures in the latest and most comprehensive round of testing. Only ResCap showed no violations of the servicing settlement parameters. Both Bank of America and Chase reported two failures each, both having to do with response times to customers. CitiMortgage and Wells Fargo each reported one, again relating to document collection timeline compliance. “I think the failures that are important are the failures with regard to prompt response to borrowers who are seeking to file an application for relief,” said Smith. “The timeliness is important to the borrowers and to the people who advise them.”
The four lenders now have a chance to correct their violations, under the settlement agreement. If they cannot or choose not to, then the monitor can seek punishment in the form of penalties up to $1 million or, in certain circumstances, $5 million. As of the monitor’s last relief progress report on May 21, 2013, the servicers reported distributing $50.63 billion in direct relief to more than 620,000 homeowners, or approximately $81,000 per homeowner. “The banks take this very seriously. They were not elated at having failures. I know they’ve spent a lot of money and a lot of time trying to correct their processes in a way that will serve the public better, but we’re not there yet,” said Smith, who was hesitant even to call the report’s results “satisfying.” He was also reluctant to praise any one bank over another, unwilling to declare, “who is best yet.” In addition to the 29 servicer test results, Smith also reported receiving 59,586 consumer complaints as well as 797 from mortgage professionals between October and the end of March 2013. 


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http://sweetfutures.com/2013/market-update-from-mike-kuta-the-squawk-trader-15/ 


The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.