Thursday, May 30, 2013

FX News with Richard Nunes

FX News on EUR-USD: It seems verbal jousting has spread to Frankfurt where various ECB officials have been busily doing the rounds proclaiming that ‘no decision has been taken upon negative deposit rates’, the latest being ECB Vice-President Constancio yesterday. This is despite the fact that we know of commercial and retail banks already being technically prepared for such an eventuality and the fact that the ECB has been analyzing the effectiveness of such a move. In our view negative rates are not so much an option but an eventuality. Aggregate inflationary developments across the euro zone remain muted (despite yesterday’s higher than expected German CPI print) whilst unemployment continues to surge ever higher. Given that governments remain fiscally constrained, it stands to reason that the only way to stimulate aggregate demand is via ever looser monetary policy: say hello to negative rates.
For the moment however USD price action remains in the driving seat of the cross. Indeed yesterday was another case in point, with the EUR-USD up move following down moves made in USD-JPY. The main data releases in the US today are the Q1 GDP revision where expectations are for a print of +2.5% and Initial Jobless Claims. Given that recent data re-lease correlations have tended to work in favour of stronger USD exchange rates we rec-ommend selling into rallies in EUR-USD.

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The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

FX Today with Richard Nunes

EUR-USD: It seems verbal jousting has spread to Frankfurt where various ECB officials have been busily doing the rounds proclaiming that ‘no decision has been taken upon negative deposit rates’, the latest being ECB Vice-President Constancio yesterday. This is despite the fact that we know of commercial and retail banks already being technically prepared for such an eventuality and the fact that the ECB has been analyzing the effectiveness of such a move. In our view negative rates are not so much an option but an eventuality. Aggregate inflationary developments across the euro zone remain muted (despite yesterday’s higher than expected German CPI print) whilst unemployment continues to surge ever higher. Given that governments remain fiscally constrained, it stands to reason that the only way to stimulate aggregate demand is via ever looser monetary policy: say hello to negative rates.
For the moment however USD price action remains in the driving seat of the cross. Indeed yesterday was another case in point, with the EUR-USD up move following down moves made in USD-JPY. The main data releases in the US today are the Q1 GDP revision where expectations are for a print of +2.5% and Initial Jobless Claims. Given that recent data re-lease correlations have tended to work in favour of stronger USD exchange rates we rec-ommend selling into rallies in EUR-USD.

CHF: This morning’s Swiss Q1 GDP print of +1.1% yoy should ease the concerns of those market participants who have been expecting an increase of the minimum bound in EUR-CHF from 1.20. Recent export data has been poor and the main culprit, aside from generally weak export markets, is thought to have been the strength of the franc. Given that GDP printed above expectations, this gives the SNB less room for manoeuvre with respect to the minimum bound. That said, our base case remains that the SNB are unlikely to do anything drastic in this regard. If they were going raise the minimum bound, they would have already done so.

JPY: Last night’s BoJ data releases showed that Japanese investors were net sellers of foreign bonds over the previous week, by some ¥1117 billion. Once again those investors who were expecting so called ‘wall of money’ flows from Japan were disappointed such that USD-JPY dipped in the aftermath of the release. Frankly I find this price action puzzling. The BoJ are clearly set upon ramping up inflation and depreciating their currency over the me-dium to long term, so why stand in the way if one or two weeks flow data are not in line with expectations? Irrespective of the merits and demerits of the ‘wall of money’ theory, 2 year swap spreads are starting to move decisively in favour of higher levels in USD-JPY. To me it is abundantly clear that the short JPY trade has farther to run.

Emerging Market Currencies

BRL: COPOM last night took the market by surprise and raised target selic rates by 50 basis points against expectations of only 25 basis points in a unanimous vote. This comes after inflation data printed too close for comfort to the central banks upper limit at 6.5%. If anything the move is a statement of intent from the central bank whose credibility has been increasingly questioned in recent months. USD-BRL has been trading higher recently in large part due to the broader USD move, however higher selic rates should put the lid on any further up move in the cross over the short term.


FX Today with Richard Nunes

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

DTN Morning Comments on Livestock

Livestock Futures Geared for Mixed Opening

Look for the cattle complex to open with mixed action thanks to a cautious combination of spillover buying and profit-taking. Lean hog futures should also start out with uneven business in light volume.
By John Harrington DTN Livestock Analyst
Cattle: Cash Steady-$1 LR Futures Mixed Live Equiv $140.74 – .16* Hogs: Cash .50-$1 HR Futures Mixed Lean Equiv $101.10 – .55** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue

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 http://sweetfutures.com/2013/dtn-morning-comments-on-livestock-19/

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

DTN Morning Comments on Grains

Grains Lower Early Wednesday

Corn futures are lower, soybeans lower, and wheat lower at 6 a.m. CDT.
By Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst
6:00 a.m. CME Globex: Corn 2 cents lower, soybeans 1 cent lower, and wheat 3 cents lower.
CME Globex Recap: A quiet overnight session in grains indicated most of the enthusiasm coming out of the holiday weekend was taken care of Tuesday. Grains drifted mostly lower through early Wednesday with corn and wheat markets posting narrow trading ranges. Old-crop soybeans saw more activity, rallying almost 10 cents before falling back. Outside markets were mostly lower once again

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The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

DTN Morning Comments on Grains

Grains Quietly Mixed Early Wednesday

Corn futures are steady, soybeans lower, and wheat higher at 6 a.m. CDT.
By Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst
6:00 a.m. CME Globex: Corn unchanged, soybeans 3 cents lower, and wheat 3 cents higher.
CME Globex Recap: Grains posted a quiet overnight session with corn and wheat trading within 5-cent ranges. Soybeans rallied early before running out of buying interest, allowing the market to drift lower. Outside markets were also mixed with the U.S. dollar index and energies lower while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures and metals are higher.

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http://sweetfutures.com/2013/dtn-morning-comments-on-grains-19/ 


The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

DTN Morning Comments on Livestock

Lean Hog Futures Likely to Open on Firm Basis

Look for the lean hog pit to start out some higher, supported by follow-through buying and the premium status of the cash index. On the other hand, the cattle complex is likely to produced mixed price action in the early rounds thanks to a combination of spillover buying interest and midweek profit taking.
By John Harrington DTN Livestock Analyst
Cattle: Steady-$1 LR Futures: mixed Live Equiv $142.24 + 0.07* Hogs: Cash 0.50-$1 HR Futures: 10-30 HR Lean Equiv $ 100.70 +0.31** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue

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http://sweetfutures.com/2013/dtn-morning-comments-on-livestock-18/ 


The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

DTN Morning Comments on Livestock

Cattle Futures to Show Opening Strength

Live and feeder cattle contracts are set to open significantly higher, supported by follow-through buying and impressive corn planting progress. Lean hog futures should start out on a firm basis tied to the growing premium of the cash market.

By John Harrington DTN Livestock Analyst
Cattle: Steady-$1 LR Futures: 50-100 HR Live Equiv $142.09 + 0.47* Hogs: Cash Steady-0.50 LR Futures: 10-30 HR Lean Equiv $100.39 – 0.10** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue

Read More
http://sweetfutures.com/2013/dtn-morning-comments-on-livestock-17/


The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

DTN Morning Comments on Grains

Grains Lower Again Tuesday 

Corn futures are lower, soybeans unchanged, and wheat lower at 6 a.m. CDT.

By Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst
6:00 a.m. CME Globex: Corn 14 cents lower, soybeans unchanged, and wheat 10 cents lower.
CME Globex Recap: Soybeans pushed higher over the course of the overnight session, but were unable to hold gains through early Tuesday morning due to strong spillover pressure from the other grains and outside commodities. The U.S. dollar index renewed its rally, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures posted small losses.

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http://sweetfutures.com/2013/dtn-morning-comments-on-grains-18/ 


The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Monday, May 20, 2013

DTN Morning Comments on Cotton

Cotton Futures Post Modest Gains

Trend-following funds bought 10,623 lots to boost their net long position to 60,145 lots, largest since April 9. Cash grower sales totaled 342 bales on The Seam.
Spot July hovered up 29 points to 86.70 cents at 7:59 a.m. CDT, trading within a 73-point range from 86.18 to 86.91 cents on a contract volume of 2,619 lots. The midpoint of its two-week range is 86.31.
By Duane Howell DTN Cotton Correspondent
Cotton futures traded modestly ahead Monday after moving to an intraday high above highs of the previous three sessions.

December gained 32 points to 86.22 cents, just off the high of its tight 58-point range from 85.71 to 86.29 cents on a turnover of 450 lots.
In outside markets, Dow Jones futures eased off 15 points and S&P futures off 1.75, while dollar index futures fell 0.232 to 84.155, July crude oil dropped 45 cents to $95.84, Brent crude slipped 56 cents to $104.08 and gold lost $11.50 to $1,353.20. July contracts traded higher in corn and soybeans and lower in wheat.
China’s Zhengzhou cotton futures settled higher, up 95 yuan or 0.48% in July and 90 yuan or 0.45% in most-active September. Prices settled mixed on the China National Cotton Exchange and the China Cotton Index dipped two yuan.
In U.S. futures-options combined, trend-following funds bought 10,623 lots during the week ended May 14 to boost their net long position by 22% to 60,145 lots, largest since April 9, according to the latest traders-commitments data reported by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Read More:
http://sweetfutures.com/2013/dtn-morning-comments-on-grains-17/

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

DTN Morning Comments on Livestock

Cattle Futures Likely to Open Lower Thanks to On Feed News

Look for live and feeder contracts to start out moderately lower this morning, pressured by Friday’s confirmation of larger than expected April placement activity. On the other hand, lean hog futures seem ready to open on a mixed basis thanks to a combination of residual selling interest and positive fundamentals.
By John Harrington DTN Livestock Analyst
Cattle: Steady-$1 LR Futures: 25-50 LR Live Equiv $141.62 – .07* Hogs: Cash Steady-.50 LR Futures: mixed Lean Equiv $100.49 + .08** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue

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http://sweetfutures.com/2013/dtn-morning-comments-on-livestock-16


The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


DTN Morning Comments on Grains

Grains Mixed Early Monday

Corn futures are higher, soybeans higher, and wheat lower at 6 a.m. CDT.
By Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst
6:00 a.m. CME Globex: Corn 3 cents higher, soybeans 5 cents higher, and wheat 1 cent lower.
CME Globex Recap: Commodities in general were under pressure once again, with only old-crop corn and soybeans, soybean meal, natural gas, and assorted softs trading higher. Heavy liquidation from investment traders continues to pressure the sector despite a modest sell-off in the US dollar index.

Read More
http://sweetfutures.com/2013/dtn-morning-comments-on-grains-16/

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Friday, May 17, 2013

DTN Morning Comments on Cotton

Cotton Trades Slightly Mixed Near Unchanged


July slipped to a modest loss overnight just below lows of the previous two inside-range sessions. Cash business sales increased to 2,200 bales on The Seam.

By Duane Howell DTN Cotton Correspondent

Cotton futures traded slightly mixed near unchanged Friday after slipping to a modest loss in overnight dealings just below lows of the previous two inside-range sessions in spot July.
The July contract hovered up three ticks to 86.06 cents at 8:02 a.m. CDT, about even with the unchanged overnight opening. It traded within an 82-point range from the low overnight at 85.54 to the high early this morning at 86.36 cents on a contract volume of 2,423 lots.
December eased off 12 points to 85.21 cents, trading within a 72-point span between 84.81, matching the prior-session low, and 85.53 cents on a turnover of 830 lots.
U.S. stock index futures traded ahead and the dollar index continued to strengthen against a basket of currencies. Recent economic data in general has indicated only sluggish improvement in the U.S. economy.
Dow Jones futures rose 46 points ahead of consumer sentiment later today and S&P futures 6.75, while dollar index futures gained 0.588 to 84.310, crude oil rose 63 cents to $95.79 and gold fell $10.70 to $1,376.20. July contracts were lower in corn and wheat and higher in soybeans.
China’s Zhengzhou cotton futures eked out small gains in the front four contracts, settling up 10 yuan or 0.05% in both July and most-active September.

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http://sweetfutures.com/2013/dtn-morning-comments-on-cotton-16/

 The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


DTN Morning Comments on Livestock

Early Buying Interest to Support Lean Hog Futures

Lean hog contracts seem geared to open moderately higher, supported by follow-through buying and stronger carcass value. Live and feeder futures should open on a mixed basis as traders position ahead of cash and on feed news.
By John Harrington DTN Livestock Analyst
Cattle: Steady-$1 LR Futures: mixed Live Equiv $141.69 + 0.19* Hogs: Cash Steady-0.50 HR Futures: 10-30 HR Lean Equiv $100.41 +$1.43** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue

Read More:
http://sweetfutures.com/2013/dtn-morning-comments-livestock/

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

DTN Morning Comments on Grains

Grains Mostly Higher Early Friday

Corn futures are higher, soybeans higher, and wheat lower at 6 a.m. CDT.
By Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst
6:00 a.m. CME Globex: Corn 2 cents higher, soybeans 10 cents higher, and wheat 1 cent lower.
CME Globex Recap: The soybean market extended its uptrend during the CME Globex overnight session. Corn contracts climbed quietly higher, while wheat remains under pressure. Most outside commodities were higher despite the continued rally in the U.S. dollar index. One exception was gold, as it built on Thursday’s sell-off to post another solid loss.

Read More
http://sweetfutures.com/2013/dtn-morning-comments-on-grains-15/

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Thursday, May 16, 2013

Market Update from Mike Kuta " The Squawk Trader "

May 16, 2013
Crude Rises on Stimulus Speculation.
West Texas Intermediate crude rose on speculation that central banks will bolster stimulus after more Americans than projected filed applications for unemployment benefits and U.S. consumer prices decreased. Futures climbed as much as 0.6 percent as Labor Department figures showed that jobless claims exceeded all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The U.S. cost of living fell in April for a second month, the first back-to-back declines in inflation since late 2008. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said last month that persistent disinflation may require the central bank to provide additional stimulus. “The market came roaring back after what were bearish headlines,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “Negative news is being taken as a sign that the easy-money policies of the central banks will continue.” The volume of all contracts traded was 83 percent above the 100-day average for the time of day. Brent crude for June settlement, which expires today, slipped 13 cents to $103.55 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The more actively traded July futures were 17 cents lower at $103.33 a barrel. Volume for all contracts was 9.3 percent greater than the 100-day average. The European benchmark crude traded at a $9.05 premium to WTI. The spread dropped to $7.65 at settlement on May 13, the narrowest level since January 2011.
Data raises questions about strength of U.S. economy.
The U.S. economy showed worrisome signs as jobless claims rose sharply last week while ground-breaking at home construction sites tumbled in April and a gauge of underlying inflation pointed to weak demand. The data could fuel fears over the impact of a government austerity drive that began in January, and could raise pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep its money printing press running on overdrive as the central bank buys bonds to support the economy. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits climbed last week at the fastest pace in six months, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits jumped by 32,000 to 360,000. That was the biggest jump since November and confounded analysts’ expectations for a more modest increase. “I think there’s plenty of slack in the labor market.,” said Tanweer Akram, an economist with ING U.S. Investment Management in Atlanta. Futures indexes for U.S. stocks turned lower following the data’s publication, as did yields on U.S. government debt. The dollar weakened against the euro and the yen.
A Labor Department analyst said no states had estimated their data, and that there were no signs furloughs for government employees played a significant role in last week’s increase in claims. The U.S. economy has shown signs that growth slowed late in the first quarter and in April as Washington’s push to trim the budget deficit weighed on consumers and businesses. The federal government hiked taxes in January and initiated sweeping budget cuts in March. Data on jobless claims has been a relative bright spot in the U.S. labor market, and analysts will be cautious over reading too deeply into one week of dour data, which showed claims at their highest since late March. Many analysts have noted that a reticence by employers to lay off workers has made an outsized contribution to recent improvements in employment levels. Last month, employers on net added 165,000 new jobs to their payrolls while the unemployment rate dropped to a four-year low at 7.5 percent. Housing has also been an economic bright spot, but a separate report showed ground-breaking for new U.S. homes plummeted more than expected in April. The Commerce Department said starts at building sites for homes fell 16.5 percent last month to a 853,000-unit annual rate. Still, permits to build new homes increased, a reassuring reminder that the housing sector could still contribute to the economic recovery. Housing has been boosted by interest rates kept low by the Fed, and a third report showed that inflation is not adding any pressure to central bankers to taper back bond buying programs

Read More
http://sweetfutures.com/2013/market-update-from-mike-kuta-the-squawk-trader-14/ 


The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

DTN Morning Comments on Cotton

Cotton Futures Remain Under Pressure

U.S. all-cotton export weekly sales fell to 82,900 running bales. Light showers teased parts of the dry Texas High Plains. Business sales slowed on The Seam.
By Duane Howell DTN Cotton Correspondent
Cotton futures remained under pressure Thursday, showing muted reaction to U.S. weekly export sales at the low end of expectations.
Spot July hovered off 69 points at 85.76 cents at 8:08 a.m. CDT, just off the low of its 75-point range from unchanged at 86.45 cents down to 85.70 cents on a contract volume of 1,562 lots. It touched the high right after the overnight opening and the low around 6:40 a.m. CDT.
December dipped 48 points to 85.01 cents, trading within a 64-point range from 85.45 to 84.81 cents on a volume of 336 lots.
Net U.S. all-cotton export sales for delivery this season fell to 82,900 running bales during the week ended May 9 from 118,600 bales the previous week. Upland net sales of 74,000 bales were down 37% from the previous week and 66% from the prior four-week average, USDA reported.
Gross upland sales were 91,200 bales and cancellations were 17,200 bales. China booked 28,600 bales of upland, 39% of the net. Other upland buyers included Vietnam, 17,200; Morocco, 8,000; Thailand, 6,100; and Taiwan, 4,400. 

Read More
http://sweetfutures.com/2013/dtn-morning-comments-on-cotton-15/ 


The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

DTN Morning Comments on Livestock

Livestock Futures Set for Firm Opening


Expect live and feeder contracts to start out moderately higher, supported by short covering, improving carcass value, and positioning before cash business and on feed news.

By John Harrington DTN Livestock Analyst
Cattle: Steady Futures: 10-30 HR Live Equiv $141.50 + 0.87* Hogs: Cash 0.50-$1 HR Futures: 10-30 HR Lean Equiv $ 98.98 +$1.02** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue

Read More
http://sweetfutures.com/2013/dtn-morning-comments-on-livestock-15/

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

DTN Morning Comments on Grains

Grains Higher Early Thursday

Corn futures are higher, soybeans higher, and wheat higher at 6 a.m. CDT.

By Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst
6:00 a.m. CME Globex: Corn 1 cent higher, soybeans 6 cents higher, and wheat 4 cents higher.
CME Globex Recap: It was another quiet overnight session with corn trading within a 3-cent range and wheat a 5-cent range. Soybeans saw a bit more activity, posting a trading range of about 11 cents, and sitting near session highs early Thursday morning. Outside commodities were under pressure once again from continued talk of slower growth in China and another rally in the US dollar index.

Read More
http://sweetfutures.com/2013/dtn-morning-comments-on-grains-14/


The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

DTN Midday Comments on Livestock

Lean Hog Futures Hold Early Gains

The ability for lean hog futures to maintain support seen early in the session is helping to stabilize the market. Cattle futures are mixed at midday following moderate early morning pressure. The firmness wholesale beef prices is drawing traders back to the complex.
By Rick Kment DTN Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Mixed trade is seen at midday with lean hog futures leading the support through the trading session. Live cattle futures held moderate losses early in the session, but are gaining momentum based on strong boxed beef values. Corn futures are trading mixed in light trade at midday. July corn futures are holding 1 cent gains at midday. Stock markets are higher in light trade. The Dow Jones is 78 points higher while Nasdaq is up 11 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Trade in the live cattle futures has been under pressure through most of the morning. Front month June futures have held narrow gains Wednesday, while all other nearby contracts posted early significant losses. The impressive rally in boxed beef values has drawn additional buyer interest into the complex, replacing moderate early pressure. The market still remains unsettled with traders uncertain just how much buyer support is under this latest round of buying activity. Market are expected to remain mixed in a narrow range through the remainder of the session. Cash cattle markets remain inactive midweek, although packer inquiry is likely to improve through the next couple of days. A few bids are seen in the South at $124 per cwt, and $198 to $200 in the North. But so far no interest in trade has developed. Asking prices are being restated at $126 to $127 in the South and $205 in the North, although asking prices are still not well defined at this point. Beef cut-outs at midday are higher, $0.63 per cwt higher (select) and up $2.09 per cwt (choice) with active movement of 144 total loads reported (42 loads of choice cuts, 48 loads of select cuts, 23 loads of trimmings, 31 loads of ground beef).

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The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

DTN Midday Comments on Grains

Wheat, Beans Lower at Midday

Grain trade is narrowly mixed at midday.
By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst
General Comments on Grains
The U.S. stock markets are higher with the Dow up 40. The interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 37 higher. Energies are lower with crude off $1.20. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are lower with gold down $30.
CORN
Corn trade is 1 higher on July to 3 lower on December new crop at midday in slow trade. The outside markets have gold down and the dollar up, which should limit upside in commodities, plus crude is lower. The stock market is higher, but this is not an independent outside market. The economics mind set of money chaces returns has a flow of money going into the stock market which is hard for equity analysts to predict when this could stop. Planters are running full go in most of the Corn Belt this week with the record heat drying out the slow areas. This will also do a lot for getting soil temperatures back closer to normal. The crop is slow and behind, but many producers now hope to have the crop in the ground before the end of the week. Estimates are in the 55%-60% range for the planting progress next Monday. Then we should make another good leap in progress prior to Memorial day. On the July chart we have found some resistance at the $6.57 50-day moving average this week. The 100-day up at $6.86 is the next upside target, with support at the $6.40 20-day. The fact May traded up to $7.22 yesterday on last trading day and we will not have any new corn in this country by July should be ammo for market bulls moving forward. 

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The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
 

Market Update from Mike Kuta " The Squawk Trader "

May 15, 2013
US home-builder confidence rises in May from April.
Confidence among U.S. home-builders rebounded this month, reflecting improved sales trends during the spring home-selling season and the strongest outlook for sales over the next six months in more than six years. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index climbed to 44 this month from 41 in April. It was the first increase since December. Measures of customer traffic and current sales conditions also improved from April’s reading. Readings below 50 suggest negative sentiment about the housing market. The last time the index was at 50 or higher was in April 2006. Concerns over rising costs for land, building materials and labor have dimmed builders’ confidence in recent months. Regardless, steady job creation, near record-low mortgage rates and rising home values have spurred sales this year.
Obama Besieged on Many Fronts.
Circling the Wagons at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue: The recent history of second term U.S. presidents indicates trouble will come at some point. You just don’t expect it to come three at a time with roots both foreign and domestic. But for the moment that is where the Obama administration finds itself. All of sudden last November’s easy re-election victory over Republican Mitt Romney seems like a galaxy far, far away. And that soaring rhetoric from the second Obama inaugural about all of the hoped-for accomplishments now sounds a bit off key. Second term presidents often find that their relevance begins to wane after the second congressional midterm election, in the final two years of their presidency. But in some ways it feels like it’s already waning with this president.
The IRS and Ghosts of Nixon:
President Obama was rightfully indignant about attempts by America’s taxation authority, the Internal Revenue Service, to target Tea Party and other conservative groups for special scrutiny. The president told a news conference this week that operating the IRS in “anything less than a neutral and non-partisan way” would be “outrageous,” and he quickly added that he wouldn’t tolerate it. He also said he wasn’t aware of it until recently and there is no suggestion the White House was behind the idea. Allegations of abuse by the IRS conjures up memories of the administration of President Richard Nixon and his efforts to intimidate and punish political opponents, sometimes by threating IRS audits as political payback. Nixon is the only president who ever resigned the presidency and the last thing any president wants, especially a Democrat, is to be lumped into the same category with the man who left the office in disgrace back in 1974. In fact for both parties, using the IRS as a political tool is one of those accepted “no-no’s” that would invite certain political peril.
The IRS has already apologized for scrutinizing the tax-exempt status of some of the conservative groups. But this has already set off a firestorm over on the political right and it’s hard to imagine a dumber political move than to play right into the hands of your harshest critics, the Tea Party groups, by putting them in the position of playing the victims. This is likely to rekindle some of the Tea Party true believers and get them fired up for the 2014 congressional midterm elections. A pretty neat trick given how distraught and bummed out they were when the president won a second term at the White House last November. Given the Tea Party influence among Republicans in the House of Representatives, it could also make it even less likely that some of the president’s major domestic goals like immigration reform will have much of a chance getting through the House. The politics of Washington went sour some years ago but this kind of thing just gets everyone on the political right “fired up and ready to go”, to borrow a phrase from the Obama campaign, circa 2008.
Targeting the AP:
Add into the mix the revelations that the Justice Department last year secretly obtained two months of telephone records of reporters and editors at the Associated Press, supposedly in connection with an AP story a year ago that focused on a foiled terror plot. AP officials described the act as a “massive and unprecedented intrusion” into their news gathering operation and are demanding explanations from the Justice Department. The irony here is that it was congressional Republicans who were demanding an investigation into leaks about the Obama administration’s anti-terror efforts that appeared to portray it in a positive light. Federal prosecutors have been known to request reporter phone records in the past. But the extent of the Justice Department sweep encompassing so many AP staffers and different bureaus is considered unusual. So now you’ve got civil libertarians on both ends off the political spectrum spitting mad about both the IRS missteps and the apparent fishing expedition targeting the Associated Press. News organizations are usually notified in advance when the government is seeking phone records and very often a negotiation ensues as to what in the end will be turned over. But the fact this was done secretly and covered a two month period has sparked an angry reaction, not just from the AP but from journalist watchdog groups around the country. 



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The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.



DTN Morning Comments on Cotton

Cotton Trades Lower on Inside Range


U.S. producer prices declined further in April and New York manufacturing activity slipped into contraction. Cash business trading resumed on The Seam.
By Duane Howell DTN Cotton Correspondent
Cotton futures traded lower Wednesday, giving back Tuesday’s gains after back-to-back losing sessions.
Spot July hovered off 84 points at 86.08 cents at 8:01 a.m. CDT, trading within an 85-point inside-day range from 86.89 to 86.04 cents on a contract volume of 1,696 lots.
December fell 103 points to 85.13 cents, just off the low of its 93-point range from 86 to 85.07 cents on a turnover of 454 lots.
In the news, U.S. wholesale prices continued to fall in April, providing new evidence of slack demand in the domestic economy, Dow Jones Newswires reported.
The producer price index, which measures how much businesses pay for finished goods, declined by a seasonally adjusted 0.7% in April from a month earlier, the Labor Department said. It was the biggest one-month decline since February 2010. In March, the index fell by 0.6%.
The bulk of the decline was driven by energy prices, which fell 2.5% on the month. These prices have been falling around the world as the result of weakening demand amid indications that fast-rising U.S. oil production will greatly boost global supply in coming years.
Separately, New York manufacturing activity slipped into contraction this month, Dow Jones reported, citing the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire state Manufacturing Survey.
The Empire State’s business conditions index declined to minus 1.43 in May from 3.05 in April. A reading below 0 indicates contraction. The May reading is the first negative number since January. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected the latest index to strengthen to 3.5.
In outside markets, Dow Jones futures fell 17 points and S&P futures 3.25, while dollar index futures gained 0.262 to 83.975, crude oil dropped $1.11 to $93.10, Brent crude dipped 78 cents to $101.82 and June gold lost $13 to $1,411.50. Nearby grains and soybeans traded lower.

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The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Market Update from Richard L Nunes

May 15, 2013 News
DXY- 83.890 +.295
EUR- 1.2865 -.0056
TYM3 131-17 -.05
RXM3 144.49 -.25 (Bunds)
SPM3 1647.80 -.2
VGM3 2792.00 +15.00 (Euro Stoxx)
CLM3 93.46 -.76 (WTI)
COM3 102.53 -.09 (Brent)
XAU 1409.29 -16.18

Asian equities were mostly higher with the regional MSCI Asia Pacific Index up 0.8%. The Nikkei was up 2.3% on the weak Yen. The Hang Seng was up 0.5% and the Shanghai Composite rose 0.4%. The Kospi was up 0.1%. The Indian Sensex was up 2.5% after the Reserve Bank of India highlighted the possibility of further monetary policy easing on softer inflation.
European equities are trading 0.5% higher in the aggregate. S&P futures point to a flat open.
Treasuries are rallying across the curve, with 10-year and 30-year yields down 1bp to 1.97% and 3.18%, respectively. UK gilts are up 3bp to 1.92%, and both German bunds and Spanish 10-year yields have risen 2bp to 1.39% and 4.35%, respectively. Italian 10-year yields are unchanged at 4.01%.

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The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Video Commentary

Video Commentary on Financials, Energy, Grains, Livestock, Metals, and Options and Volatility

http://sweetfutures.com/video/

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

DTN Morning Comments on Livestock

Published on 05-15-2013

Hog Paper Set for Firm Opening

The lean hog pit should start out moderately higher, supported by follow-through buying and the steady advance of the cash index. Look for the cattle complex to open on a mixed basis as traders cautiously position ahead of cash news.
By John Harrington DTN Livestock Analyst
Cattle: Steady Futures: mixed Live Equiv $140.63 + 0.47* Hogs: Cash 0.50-$1 HR Futures: 10-30 HR Lean Equiv $ 97.96 + 0.21** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue

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The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

DTN Morning Comments on Grains

Grains Lower Early Wednesday 

Corn futures are lower, soybeans lower, and wheat lower at 6 a.m. CDT.

By Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst
6:00 a.m. CME Globex: Corn 2 cents lower, soybeans 5 cents lower, and wheat 4 cents lower.
CME Globex Recap: Grains traded lower overnight with volume low once again. Commodities in general were under pressure as the U.S. dollar index continues to rally. Much of the pressure in commodities has been tied to lowered growth expectations in China, while support in the U.S. dollar index continues to come from the weaker Japanese yen.

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The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Special Notice for June NYMEX Crude Oil

JUNE NYMEX CRUDE OIL

LAST TRADE DAY: TUESDAY, MAY 21, 2013.
First Notice Day: Thursday, May 23rd, 2013.

http://sweetfutures.com/2013/special-notice-june-nymex-crude-oil-futures/

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Special Notice: JUNE NYMEX CRUDE OIL FUTURES

JUNE NYMEX CRUDE OIL

LAST TRADE DAY: TUESDAY, MAY 21, 2013.

First Notice Day: Thursday, May 23rd, 2013.


Special Notice: JUNE NYMEX CRUDE OIL FUTURES

Special Notice for May CME Lumber

MAY CME LUMBER

LAST TRADE DAY AND FIRST NOTICE DAY:
MAY 15, 2013 – LAST TRADE DAY
MAY 16, 2013 – FIRST NOTICE DAY

http://sweetfutures.com/2013/special-notice-may-cme-lumber-futures/

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Market Update from Mike Kuta " The Squawk Trader "


Published on 05-14-2013

May 14, 2013
As the Dollar Rises, Gold Prices are Set to Fall Even Further.
old prices have started the week weaker in the southern hemisphere, dropping around $18.00 to trade at $1429.00/oz, despite the amount of physical buying that is taking place the paper market still calls the shots, for now at least. After what looks like a capitulation gold prices did bounce back, however, they have failed to break through $1500 and challenge the 50dma and now look set to test recent lows. The $1475.00/oz level has become a resistance level that gold has been unable to break. One possible reason for gold not doing so well is that the US dollar has improved over the last few days and now looks set to challenge its recent high in an attempt to form a new higher high. Gold has an inverse relationship with the dollar so as one goes up the other tends to go down. The improvement in dollar could well be due to the Japanese yen falling as the Japanese government print more Yen in an attempt to boost economic activity. We have also had a rate cut which was announced last week by the European Central Bank (ECB) heralding a weaker Euro. The recent unemployment figures were good enough to suggest that there would be no increase in QE any time soon, another factor that has dampened the enthusiasm for gold. These events are positive for the dollar right now but will soon be absorbed by the market and when that happens the dollar will once again head south.
The Dollar:
Holders of such currencies as the Yen and Euro face a future of their currencies declining thus reducing their spending power. As an alternative the dollar may have some appeal even if it is used as a stop gap measure giving them some breathing space before moving on. As the chart indicates the dollar found support at ‘79’ and has rallied to ‘83’, the demise of other currencies has added upward pressure to the US$. Also note that the RSI is making steady progress but could soon hit the ’70′ level, indicating an overbought position and a possible reversal for the dollar.
Conclusion:
We are in the merry month of ‘sell in May and go away’ so we could experience a sell-off in the general stock market which in turn would take the mining stocks lower. We also need to be aware that the summer doldrums are upon us and gold tends drift lower until August. Labor Day this year falls on Monday 2ndSeptember, usually a time when gold commences its ascent doing its best work over the northern winter period. So, if you are a short term trader you may want open a short position in order to take advantage of this seasonal lull. However, you will need to be nimble as when gold changes direction it can move quickly and wipe out those profits. If you still believe in the precious metals bull market then the next few months should present you with some very low entry levels indeed. The selection of quality mining stocks will be as important as ever as a number of stocks will perform poorly and some will disappear altogether. Your individual profitability will depend largely on identifying the real stars of this sector, so do the work now, it will be worth it. Long or short, you need to stay awake and keep your finger on the pulse if you wish to profit from this tiny sector of the market.

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The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

DTN Morning Comments on Cotton

Cotton Trades Slightly Lower on Inside Ranges

Import prices fell 0.5%. U.S. crop progress at 23% planted lagged behind 46% last year and 38% on average. Cash trading remained inactive on The Seam.
By Duane Howell DTN Cotton Correspondent
Cotton futures traded with slight losses on light volume and tight ranges inside prior-session ranges spans Tuesday.
Spot July hovered off 18 points to 85.66 cents at 8:02 a.m. CDT, trading within a 71-point range from 86.21 to 85.50 cents on a contract volume of 1,760 lots. It has posted back-to-back closing losses for the first time since April 23-24.
December slipped 34 points to 85.16 cents, trading within a 62-point span from 85.67 to 85.05 cents on a turnover of 444 lots.
In the news, prices for imported goods fell last month, led by the declining cost of oil, the latest indication of very little inflation pressure this spring, Dow Jones Newswires reported.
The price index for goods imported to the United States decreased 0.5% in April from March, the Labor Department said. This matched expectations. The monthly price decline is the largest so far this year. From a year ago, import prices are down 2.6%.
In outside markets, Dow Jones futures edged up 7 points and S&P futures up 1.75, while dollar index futures eked up 0.035 to 83.400, crude oil dropped 31 cents to $94.86, Brent crude dropped 47 cents to $102.35 and gold fell $11 to $1,423.30. July contracts were lower in corn and soybeans and higher in wheat.
China’s Zhengzhou cotton futures settled mostly lower, down 230 yuan or 1.06% in May, 105 yuan or 0.52% in July and 60 yuan or 0.29% in most-active September. The other contracts were flat to down 20 yuan. 

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The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

DTN Morning Comments on Livestock

Lean Hogs Set for Firm Opening

The lean hog pit should open moderately higher, supported by recent cash and product gains. The cattle pits are also likely to start out on a firm basis thanks to short covering and the premium status of feedlot sales.
By John Harrington DTN Livestock Analyst
Cattle: Steady Futures: 10-30 HR Live Equiv $140.16 + 0.30 * Hogs: Cash Steady-0.50 HR Futures: 10-30 HR Lean Equiv $ 97.75 + 0.83** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue

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 http://sweetfutures.com/2013/dtn-morning-comments-on-livestock-13/

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

DTN Morning Comments on Grains



Published on 05-14-2013

Grains Mixed Early Tuesday

Corn futures are lower, soybeans higher, and wheat higher at 6 a.m. CDT.
By Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst
6:00 a.m. CME Globex: Corn 1/2 cent lower (July), soybeans 5 cents higher (July), and wheat 1 cent higher (July).
CME Globex Recap: Soybeans extended Monday’s rally overnight, trading within striking distance of session highs early Tuesday morning. Corn and wheat contracts moved higher early on follow-through buying from Monday before sliding lower. Outside markets stabilized with energies mixed and metals lower. The U.S. dollar index was posting a small loss while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were lower once again.

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The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Monday, May 13, 2013

Market Update with Mike Kuta Prt 2



May 13, 2013
Bernanke to speak on economy to Congress on May 22.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver testimony on May 22 on the outlook for the U.S. economy before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, according to an announcement on the website of committee chairwoman Amy Klobuchar. Bernanke’s appearance will come as markets, weighing recent mixed indications on the strength of the U.S. economy, focus on the likely duration of continued bond purchases by the U.S. central bank to spur growth and hiring.
Spain Home Expropriation Plans Seen Violating EU Bailout.
Spanish politicians trying to cushion the blows of austerity plan to seize foreclosed homes to house the needy, discouraging foreign investment and threatening to violate terms of the European bailout of the country’s banks. The regional governments of Andalusia, with the most vacant properties in the country, and the tourist destination of the Canary Islands, are planning to expropriate foreclosed properties for as long as three years to house displaced families. The European Commission has asked Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s government for details on the regions’ actions, to ensure they don’t clash with the country’s commitments. “It’s third world, populist and akin to policies more commonly seen in Bolivia and North Korea,” said Mikel Echavarren, chief executive officer of Irea, a Madrid-based restructuring firm that has advised on 22 billion euros ($28.6 billion) of refinancing. “Investors fear it will set a precedent and other regions will follow suit, making Spanish real estate investment an extremely high-risk activity.” Rajoy’s People Party has pushed ahead with the harshest austerity measures in the country’s democratic history to tame surging borrowing costs that last year pushed Spain to the verge of a bailout. While seizing homes may soften the impact, it threatens to complicate the government’s task of meeting the terms of a 41 billion euro rescue package for the banking sector, including selling 50.8 billion euros of soured property assets transferred to the nation’s bad bank with a return for its investors. ‘Key Element’
“We are talking about a key element, a very important element which concerns the financial assistance that banks have been given by the European Union,” Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria said on Friday at a press conference in Madrid. That agreement “obliges us to fulfill certain obligations, pacts and memorandums. We all have to work together on the issue of foreclosures to adopt balanced decisions.” Simon O’Connor, spokesman for European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn, said today in Brussels that the commission is well aware of the “severe social consequences of the crisis in Spain” and is in contact with the Spanish authorities to request additional information about policies adopted at the regional level. Property investment in Spain already is a risky proposition after a decade-long property bubble burst in 2008, tipping the nation into recession and pushing unemployment to a record 27 percent. Around 400,000 foreclosures have been ordered in Spain since the start of the crisis, sparking a wave of demonstrations that have seen protesters picket politicians’ homes to shame them over evictions. ‘Terrible Idea’

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The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Sweet Futures 1, LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Sweet Futures 1 does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This website contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Sweet Futures 1. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Market Update from Mike Kuta " The Squawk Trader "



May 13, 2013
Bloomberg’s top editor calls policy on client data ‘inexcusable’.
Matthew Winkler, editor-in-chief of Bloomberg News, apologized today for allowing journalists “limited” access to sensitive data about how clients used Bloomberg terminals, saying it was “inexcusable” but that important customer data had always been protected. His statement came as the European Central Bank said it was in “close contact with Bloomberg” about any possible breaches in the confidentiality of data usage. The U.S. Federal Reserve said it was examining whether there could have been leaks of confidential information. A source briefed on the situation said the Treasury Department was looking into the question as well. The practice of giving reporters access to some data considered proprietary – including when a customer looked into broad categories such as equities or bonds – came to light in media reports last week. In response, the parent company, Bloomberg LP, said it had restricted such access last month after Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) complained. Winkler, in an editorial posted on Bloomberg.com, said: “Our reporters should not have access to any data considered proprietary. I am sorry they did. The error is inexcusable.” Goldman flagged the matter to Bloomberg after the bank found that journalists had access to more information than it had known and argued the information was sensitive and should not be seen by reporters. The news triggered fears at Wall Street firms about the privacy of sensitive data, as well as at the Fed and other U.S. government departments that use Bloomberg terminals.
In the editorial, Winkler sought to clarify what exactly Bloomberg journalists could see. He said they had access to a user’s login history, as well as “high-level types of user functions on an aggregated basis, with no ability to look into specific security information.” He said the practice dates back to the early days of Bloomberg News in the 1990s, when reporters used the terminal to find out what kind of news coverage customers wanted. “As data privacy has become a central concern to our clients, we should go above and beyond in protecting data, especially when we have even the appearance of impropriety,” Winkler wrote. “And that’s why we’ve made these recent changes to what reporters can access.” Winkler emphasized that “We have never compromised the integrity of that data in our reporting” and said Bloomberg journalists are subject to standards that are among the most stringent in the business. “At no time did reporters have access to trading, portfolio, monitor, blotter or other related systems,” he said. “Nor did they have access to clients’ messages to one another. They couldn’t see the stories that clients were reading or the securities clients might be looking at.”

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Thursday, May 9, 2013

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